According to a report by Redfin, some metros are more vulnerable than others to a housing downturn.
Redfin reviewed a number of factors (such as median home sale price-to-household income ratio; average loan-to-value ratio of homes sold in 2018; home price volatility, measured by the standard deviation of home prices year-to-year, and other factors) and assigned each market at risk score. The higher the risk score, the greater the risk that market will see a downturn in a recession.
The metro area at the most risk is Riverside, California, which has an overall score of 72.8%. Phoenix, Arizona follows with 69.8% and Miami at 69.5%.
Rochester, Buffalo and Hartford have the lowest risk.
Top 10 Metros With Highest Risk of a Housing Downturn in a Recession
Rank | Metro Area | Home Sale Price-to-Income Ratio | Average Home Loan-to-Value Ratio | Home Price Volatility | Flips Share of Sales | Employment Diversity | Exports Share of GDP | Share of Households 65+ | Overall Score |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Riverside, CA | 6.3 | 65.3% | 17.9% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 22.5% | 72.8% |
2 | Phoenix, AZ | 4.7 | 64.8% | 17.7% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 24.1% | 69.8% |
3 | Miami, FL | 5.9 | 50.4% | 15.2% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 27.7% | 69.5% |
4 | San Diego, CA | 8.1 | 65.6% | 16.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 21.8% | 68.2% |
5 | Providence, RI | 4.5 | 70.6% | 16.8% | 4.4% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 25.4% | 67.1% |
6 | Tampa, FL | 4.5 | 59.2% | 17.1% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 4.3% | 29.4% | 66.8% |
7 | Las Vegas, NV | 5.1 | 61.0% | 16.7% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 2.4% | 22.1% | 64.6% |
8 | Los Angeles, CA | 10.9 | 62.6% | 15.7% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 21.7% | 63.7% |
9 | San Antonio, TX | 4.1 | N/A† | 15.7% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 21.6% | 63.2% |
10 | Orlando, FL | 4.8 | 61.2% | 16.0% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 2.4% | 22.3% | 59.1% |
Top 10 Metros With Lowest Risk of a Housing Downturn in a Recession
Rank | Metro Area | Home Sale Price-to Income Ratio | Average Home Loan-to-Value Ratio | Home Price Volatility | Flips Share of Sales | Employment Diversity | Exports Share of GDP | Share of Households 65+ | Overall Score |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Rochester, NY | 2.6 | 11.8% | 11.7% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 26.1% | 30.4% |
2 | Buffalo, NY | 2.8 | 63.2% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 27.0% | 31.9% |
3 | Hartford, CT | 3.0 | N/A† | 13.1% | 2.8% | 7.2% | 11.9% | 25.7% | 33.9% |
4 | Cleveland, OH | 3.0 | 64.8% | 10.9% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 26.8% | 34.6% |
5 | Raleigh, NC | 4.2 | 68.3% | 12.1% | 4.1% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 17.6% | 35.2% |
6 | Chicago, IL | 3.8 | 65.2% | 13.2% | 3.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 22.6% | 37.9% |
7 | Columbus, OH | 3.6 | 69.8% | 10.9% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 20.1% | 38.3% |
8 | Milwaukee, WI | 3.8 | 64.7% | 15.1% | 3.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 22.9% | 40.4% |
9 | New Orleans, LA | 4.4 | 61.8% | 9.1% | 3.9% | 7.5% | 39.9% | 23.6% | 40.6% |
10 | Minneapolis, MN | 3.8 | 72.1% | 13.6% | 3.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 20.8% | 40.8% |