Redfin Identifies Housing Markets Most Affected by a Possible Recession

According to a report by Redfin, some metros are more vulnerable than others to a housing downturn. 

Redfin reviewed a number of factors (such as median home sale price-to-household income ratio; average loan-to-value ratio of homes sold in 2018; home price volatility, measured by the standard deviation of home prices year-to-year, and other factors) and assigned each market at risk score. The higher the risk score, the greater the risk that market will see a downturn in a recession.

The metro area at the most risk is Riverside, California, which has an overall score of 72.8%. Phoenix, Arizona follows with 69.8% and Miami at 69.5%.

Rochester, Buffalo and Hartford have the lowest risk.

Top 10 Metros With Highest Risk of a Housing Downturn in a Recession

RankMetro AreaHome Sale Price-to-Income RatioAverage Home Loan-to-Value RatioHome Price VolatilityFlips Share of SalesEmployment DiversityExports Share of GDPShare of Households 65+Overall Score
1Riverside, CA6.365.3%17.9%6.3%7.8%5.6%22.5%72.8%
2Phoenix, AZ4.764.8%17.7%8.1%7.7%5.4%24.1%69.8%
3Miami, FL5.950.4%15.2%7.5%8.3%10.1%27.7%69.5%
4San Diego, CA8.165.6%16.9%5.9%7.1%8.0%21.8%68.2%
5Providence, RI4.570.6%16.8%4.4%7.4%8.6%25.4%67.1%
6Tampa, FL4.559.2%17.1%7.5%8.3%4.3%29.4%66.8%
7Las Vegas, NV5.161.0%16.7%8.3%8.5%2.4%22.1%64.6%
8Los Angeles, CA10.962.6%15.7%7.7%7.3%6.1%21.7%63.7%
9San Antonio, TX4.1N/A†15.7%5.8%8.0%7.1%21.6%63.2%
10Orlando, FL4.861.2%16.0%6.1%8.1%2.4%22.3%59.1%

Top 10 Metros With Lowest Risk of a Housing Downturn in a Recession

RankMetro AreaHome Sale Price-to Income RatioAverage Home Loan-to-Value RatioHome Price VolatilityFlips Share of SalesEmployment DiversityExports Share of GDPShare of Households 65+Overall Score
1Rochester, NY2.611.8%11.7%4.6%7.3%8.3%26.1%30.4%
2Buffalo, NY2.863.2%10.4%3.7%7.6%8.4%27.0%31.9%
3Hartford, CT3.0N/A†13.1%2.8%7.2%11.9%25.7%33.9%
4Cleveland, OH3.064.8%10.9%4.5%7.4%6.4%26.8%34.6%
5Raleigh, NC4.268.3%12.1%4.1%7.3%3.4%17.6%35.2%
6Chicago, IL3.865.2%13.2%3.8%7.4%6.8%22.6%37.9%
7Columbus, OH3.669.8%10.9%4.5%7.5%4.4%20.1%38.3%
8Milwaukee, WI3.864.7%15.1%3.5%7.3%6.9%22.9%40.4%
9New Orleans, LA4.461.8%9.1%3.9%7.5%39.9%23.6%40.6%
10Minneapolis, MN3.872.1%13.6%3.2%7.0%7.3%20.8%40.8%