The Uneven Housing Recovery

The Uneven Housing Recovery

July’s housing prices reached new records in half of the largest U.S. metro areas, according to Zillow’s most recent Real Estate Market Report. The report also revealed that the median home value is now $4,100 higher than it was in April 2007, immediately preceding the housing crash.

However, like so many other things in today’s world, the housing recovery is a very uneven one. More than at any other time, today’s housing market is reflective of a bifurcated job market.

On the one hand, housing prices in cities with high-skilled labor pools like San Francisco, Denver and Portland have been propelled to new records. In Portland, the median home value is now about 26% higher than during peak bubble years, while it’s around 20% higher in San Francisco and Seattle. Meanwhile, almost all houses in Denver are now higher than they were during the peak of the housing bubble. In fact, home prices in Denver are almost 60% more now than during the bubble, increasing from a median home value of $235,900 in April 2006 to a current median home value of $371,100, the data shows. On the other hand, the exact opposite is happening in Las Vegas, where only 1% of homes are now more expensive than they were during the peak.

The above disparity is not limited to housing prices. The residential rental market in select areas is also outpacing income growth. Median rent across the nation rose 1.6% since last July, the fastest pace of appreciation since December 2016, to a median payment of $1,427 per month. SeattleSacramento and Los Angeles reported the greatest rent growth over the past year. In Seattle and Sacramento, rents rose about 5% since last July. In Los Angeles, rents rose just over 4& to a Zillow Rent Index of $2,696.

This new pattern is raising many questions about the sustainability of new housing landscape. Non-tech professionals like teachers, police officers and nurses are finding it increasingly difficult to afford living in more and more metropolitan areas. The situation is much more dire for lower paying jobs such as janitors, food servers and clerical workers.

Metropolitan Area

Zillow Home Value
Index (ZHVI)

ZHVI
Year-
Over-Year
Change

ZHVI Bubble
Peak

Percent
Difference
From
Peak

Zillow Rent
Index (ZRI)

ZRI Year-
Over-Year
Change

United States

$                200,700

6.8%

$    196,600

2.1%

$              1,427

1.6%

New York, NY

$                425,600

9.3%

$    445,200

-4.4%

$              2,382

-1.0%

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA

$                611,100

6.1%

$    604,000

1.2%

$              2,696

4.3%

Chicago, IL

$                212,300

6.4%

$    247,000

-14.0%

$              1,644

0.2%

Dallas-Fort Worth, TX

$                212,500

9.6%

$    149,600

42.0%

$              1,588

3.0%

Philadelphia, PA

$                218,500

4.0%

$    230,600

-5.2%

$              1,573

-0.4%

Houston, TX

$                180,800

4.6%

 n/a

 n/a

$              1,535

-2.7%

Washington, DC

$                382,900

3.0%

$    427,600

-10.5%

$              2,130

0.4%

Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL

$                254,200

6.6%

$    305,200

-16.7%

$              1,850

-1.8%

Atlanta, GA

$                180,400

7.8%

$    174,500

3.4%

$              1,355

3.4%

Boston, MA

$                429,400

7.9%

$    382,700

12.2%

$              2,364

2.4%

San Francisco, CA

$                859,000

6.3%

$    700,300

22.7%

$              3,377

-0.6%

Detroit, MI

$                141,400

8.5%

$    157,100

-10.0%

$              1,163

-1.0%

Riverside, CA

$                330,400

5.6%

$    403,900

-18.2%

$              1,807

4.3%

Phoenix, AZ

$                238,300

6.5%

$    273,500

-12.9%

$              1,330

2.6%

Seattle, WA

$                450,900

12.8%

$    380,200

18.6%

$              2,161

5.4%

Minneapolis-St Paul, MN

$                246,900

7.8%

$    240,500

2.7%

$              1,601

4.0%

San Diego, CA

$                550,900

6.7%

$    543,600

1.3%

$              2,504

3.4%

St. Louis, MO

$                148,300

2.8%

$    158,900

-6.7%

$              1,139

0.5%

Tampa, FL

$                186,400

9.6%

$    214,300

-13.0%

$              1,356

1.8%

Baltimore, MD

$                260,600

3.4%

$    289,100

-9.9%

$              1,731

-0.1%

Denver, CO

$                371,100

8.4%

$    235,900

57.3%

$              2,020

0.6%

Pittsburgh

$                138,300

5.2%

 n/a

 n/a

$              1,079

-2.4%

Portland, OR

$                368,900

8.7%

$    293,100

25.9%

$              1,838

3.8%

Charlotte, NC

$                176,000

8.2%

$    155,400

13.3%

$              1,271

2.7%

Sacramento, CA

$                371,400

8.7%

$    420,800

-11.7%

$              1,757

5.0%

San Antonio

$                165,400

8.2%

 n/a

 n/a

$              1,334

1.2%

Orlando, FL

$                207,700

9.1%

$    256,300

-19.0%

$              1,412

3.1%

Cincinnati, OH

$                153,300

6.1%

$    144,300

6.2%

$              1,263

1.9%

Cleveland, OH

$                135,200

5.9%

$    145,400

-7.0%

$              1,146

-0.3%

Kansas City, MO

$                160,200

6.9%

$    159,500

0.4%

$              1,267

2.3%

Las Vegas, NV

$                227,800

9.4%

$    304,700

-25.2%

 n/a

n/a

Columbus, OH

$                163,600

4.9%

$    148,000

10.5%

$              1,308

1.2%

Indianapolis, IN

$                138,700

5.2%

$    139,900

-0.9%

$              1,192

-0.3%

San Jose, CA

$             1,027,100

7.9%

$    745,300

37.8%

$              3,477

-0.9%

Austin, TX

$                272,400

6.7%

 n/a

 n/a

$              1,696

-1.0%